Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report

Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 10,970 total plays 10.0 families/draw

Switch Strategy:

Ranks every family by how far past its expected gap it currently is (current skip ÷ expected skip) and plays the 10 most overdue.

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m

Draw Time: All Draws ☀️ Midday 🌆 Evening 🌙 Night

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Law-of-large-numbers mean-reversion model. Dynamically calculates every family's current skip divided by its theoretical probability-based expected gap (10^d ÷ ways to win). Families with the highest skip-to-expectation ratio are played.

Execution & Cost Profile

Play Sizing: Averages 10.0 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.50 (10.0 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/05/2026

Playing 10 families for $2.50 total stake.

117 double 035 distinct 179 distinct 333 triple 012 distinct 019 distinct 137 distinct 569 distinct 018 distinct 036 distinct

Family	Type	Selection Reason
117	double	1842 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.53x overdue)
035	distinct	895 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.37x overdue)
179	distinct	886 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.32x overdue)
333	triple	4807 draws since last hit — expected ~1000 (4.81x overdue)
012	distinct	676 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.06x overdue)
019	distinct	654 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.92x overdue)
137	distinct	595 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.57x overdue)
569	distinct	580 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.48x overdue)
018	distinct	554 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.32x overdue)
036	distinct	534 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.20x overdue)

📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)

★ Sweet Spot Window

Evaluated across 1,097 drawings (2025-09-04 → 2026-09-04). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-3,432 (-9.9% ROI across 13,853 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$642.5

Return on Investment -23.4%

Hit Rate 0.38%

Max Drawdown -$-795

Active Drawings 1,097

Total Plays Placed 10,970

Total Winning Hits 42

Gross Revenue $2,100

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Stake per family per drawing:

Starting Bankroll ($):

Total Staked (Cost) $2,742.5

Total Payout (Gross) $2,100

Net Profit / Loss -$642.5

Final Bankroll $-142.5

Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-795.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-1192.

🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M	3M	6M	1Y ★	2Y	3Y	All Time	Profitable Months
-$27.5 -100.0% ROI	+$145 29.4% ROI	-$312.5 -26.6% ROI	-$590 -23.2% ROI	-$927.5 -17.6% ROI	-$2,097.5 -26.1% ROI	-$3,432.5 -9.9% ROI	3 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

Year	Cost	Gross	Net Profit	Hits	ROI
2010	$860	$750	-$110	20	-12.8%
2011	$1,807.5	$1,612.5	-$195	38	-10.8%
2012	$1,817.5	$1,537.5	-$280	34	-15.4%
2013	$1,822.5	$1,950	+$127.5	39	7.0%
2014	$1,825	$2,062.5	+$237.5	36	13.0%
2015	$1,820	$1,875	+$55	40	3.0%
2016	$1,830	$1,500	-$330	30	-18.0%
2017	$1,825	$1,987.5	+$162.5	38	8.9%
2018	$1,825	$1,312.5	-$512.5	27	-28.1%
2019	$1,825	$1,687.5	-$137.5	29	-7.5%
2020	$1,830	$1,950	+$120	39	6.6%
2021	$2,737.5	$2,737.5	+$0	51	0.0%
2022	$2,737.5	$2,812.5	+$75	53	2.7%
2023	$2,737.5	$2,062.5	-$675	40	-24.7%
2024	$2,745	$1,425	-$1,320	32	-48.1%
2025	$2,737.5	$2,362.5	-$375	43	-13.7%
2026	$1,850	$1,575	-$275	33	-14.9%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

25-09 $-53

25-10 $-158

25-11 $-38

25-12 $-120

26-01 $30

26-02 $128

26-03 $-120

26-04 $-75

26-05 $-195

26-06 $-188

26-07 $-8

26-08 $180

26-09 $-28

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

017 1 hits 027 1 hits 028 1 hits 029 1 hits 037 1 hits 044 1 hits 045 1 hits 046 1 hits 057 1 hits 066 1 hits 068 1 hits 112 1 hits 123 1 hits 134 1 hits 135 1 hits 138 1 hits 146 1 hits 147 1 hits 222 1 hits 234 1 hits 235 1 hits 237 1 hits 244 1 hits 245 1 hits 246 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 25)

Date	Draw	Number	Family	Payout	Trigger Reason
2026-08-29	Night	208	028	+$37.50	700 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.20x overdue)
2026-08-26	Midday	222	222	+$225.00	3644 draws since last hit — expected ~1000 (3.64x overdue)
2026-08-22	Midday	959	599	+$75.00	1368 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.10x overdue)
2026-08-21	Midday	416	146	+$37.50	981 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.89x overdue)
2026-08-09	Night	468	468	+$37.50	595 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.57x overdue)
2026-07-27	Evening	438	348	+$37.50	647 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.88x overdue)
2026-07-14	Night	037	037	+$37.50	625 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.75x overdue)
2026-07-10	Night	526	256	+$37.50	575 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.45x overdue)
2026-07-09	Midday	044	044	+$75.00	1296 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.89x overdue)
2026-07-08	Evening	674	467	+$37.50	1120 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (6.72x overdue)
2026-06-17	Evening	782	278	+$37.50	688 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.13x overdue)
2026-05-12	Midday	143	134	+$37.50	696 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.18x overdue)
2026-04-18	Evening	112	112	+$75.00	1659 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.98x overdue)
2026-04-16	Night	437	347	+$37.50	854 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.12x overdue)
2026-04-06	Midday	714	147	+$37.50	608 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.65x overdue)
2026-03-29	Midday	290	029	+$37.50	617 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.70x overdue)
2026-03-11	Evening	234	234	+$37.50	775 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.65x overdue)
2026-03-10	Midday	975	579	+$37.50	508 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.05x overdue)
2026-02-26	Night	553	355	+$75.00	966 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (2.90x overdue)
2026-02-26	Midday	460	046	+$37.50	586 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.52x overdue)
2026-02-25	Evening	213	123	+$37.50	533 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.20x overdue)
2026-02-20	Evening	608	068	+$37.50	842 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.05x overdue)
2026-02-19	Midday	513	135	+$37.50	543 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.26x overdue)
2026-02-12	Midday	572	257	+$37.50	629 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.77x overdue)
2026-02-06	Evening	928	289	+$37.50	536 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.22x overdue)