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Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 1,840 total plays 10.0 families/draw

Ranks every family by how far past its expected gap it currently is (current skip ÷ expected skip) and plays the 10 most overdue.

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Law-of-large-numbers mean-reversion model. Dynamically calculates every family's current skip divided by its theoretical probability-based expected gap (10^d ÷ ways to win). Families with the highest skip-to-expectation ratio are played.

Execution & Cost Profile

  • Play Sizing: Averages 10.0 boxed families per drawing.
  • Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.50 (10.0 × $0.25).
  • Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
  • Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/05/2026

Playing 10 families for $2.50 total stake.

257 distinct 023 distinct 018 distinct 339 double 599 double 014 distinct 046 distinct 477 double 222 triple 777 triple
FamilyTypeSelection Reason
257 distinct 1062 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (6.37x overdue)
023 distinct 851 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.11x overdue)
018 distinct 848 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.09x overdue)
339 double 1660 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.98x overdue)
599 double 1560 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.68x overdue)
014 distinct 772 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.63x overdue)
046 distinct 681 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.09x overdue)
477 double 1273 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.82x overdue)
222 triple 3682 draws since last hit — expected ~1000 (3.68x overdue)
777 triple 3682 draws since last hit — expected ~1000 (3.68x overdue)

📊 Key performance metrics (3 months walk-forward)

Multi-Year Consistency Window

Evaluated across 184 drawings (2026-06-03 → 2026-09-02). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-1,305 (-20.9% ROI across 2,502 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$122.5
Return on Investment -26.6%
Hit Rate 0.33%
Max Drawdown -$-170
Active Drawings 184
Total Plays Placed 1,840
Total Winning Hits 6
Gross Revenue $337.5

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Total Staked (Cost) $460
Total Payout (Gross) $337.5
Net Profit / Loss -$122.5
Final Bankroll $377.5
Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-170.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-255.
🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M 3M 6M 1Y ★ 2Y 3Y All Time Profitable Months
-$10
-100.0% ROI
-$170
-53.1% ROI
-$362.5
-46.8% ROI
-$372.5
-22.1% ROI
-$697.5
-19.9% ROI
-$1,177.5
-22.1% ROI
-$1,305
-20.9% ROI
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📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

YearCostGrossNet ProfitHitsROI
2023 $1,375 $1,125 -$250 30 -18.2%
2024 $1,830 $1,200 -$630 27 -34.4%
2025 $1,825 $1,725 -$100 35 -5.5%
2026 $1,225 $900 -$325 14 -26.5%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

26-06 $48
26-07 $-80
26-08 $-80
26-09 $-10

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

017 1 hits 115 1 hits 117 1 hits 133 1 hits 189 1 hits 478 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 6)

DateDrawNumberFamilyPayoutTrigger Reason
2026-08-23 Evening 711 117 +$75.00 1410 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.23x overdue)
2026-07-31 Midday 918 189 +$37.50 627 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.76x overdue)
2026-07-12 Midday 170 017 +$37.50 769 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.61x overdue)
2026-06-19 Evening 511 115 +$75.00 1551 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.65x overdue)
2026-06-13 Evening 748 478 +$37.50 594 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.56x overdue)
2026-06-07 Midday 133 133 +$75.00 1585 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.75x overdue)