Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report

Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 3,140 total plays 10.0 families/draw

Switch Strategy:

Ranks every family by how far past its expected gap it currently is (current skip ÷ expected skip) and plays the 10 most overdue.

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m

Draw Time: All Draws Morning ☀️ Midday 🌆 Evening

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Law-of-large-numbers mean-reversion model. Dynamically calculates every family's current skip divided by its theoretical probability-based expected gap (10^d ÷ ways to win). Families with the highest skip-to-expectation ratio are played.

Execution & Cost Profile

Play Sizing: Averages 10.0 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.50 (10.0 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/05/2026

Playing 10 families for $2.50 total stake.

249 distinct 478 distinct 289 distinct 368 distinct 239 distinct 455 double 113 double 379 distinct 588 double 444 triple

Family	Type	Selection Reason
249	distinct	1642 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (9.85x overdue)
478	distinct	787 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.72x overdue)
289	distinct	775 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.65x overdue)
368	distinct	736 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.42x overdue)
239	distinct	617 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.70x overdue)
455	double	1218 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.65x overdue)
113	double	1047 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.14x overdue)
379	distinct	521 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.13x overdue)
588	double	1037 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.11x overdue)
444	triple	3076 draws since last hit — expected ~1000 (3.08x overdue)

📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)

★ Sweet Spot Window Midday Slot Only

Evaluated across 994 drawings (2025-09-02 → 2026-09-02). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-555 (-20.3% ROI across 1,092 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$185

Return on Investment -23.6%

Hit Rate 0.35%

Max Drawdown -$-227.5

Active Drawings 314

Total Plays Placed 3,140

Total Winning Hits 11

Gross Revenue $600

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Stake per family per drawing:

Starting Bankroll ($):

Total Staked (Cost) $785

Total Payout (Gross) $600

Net Profit / Loss -$185

Final Bankroll $315

Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-227.50. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-341.

🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M	3M	6M	1Y ★	2Y	3Y	All Time	Profitable Months
-$5 -100.0% ROI	-$25 -18.2% ROI	+$42.5 12.8% ROI	-$122.5 -17.0% ROI	-$155 -10.3% ROI	-$600 -26.2% ROI	-$555 -20.3% ROI	4 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

Year	Cost	Gross	Net Profit	Hits	ROI
2023	$637.5	$712.5	+$75	14	11.8%
2024	$785	$225	-$560	6	-71.3%
2025	$782.5	$712.5	-$70	12	-8.9%
2026	$525	$525	+$0	9	0.0%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

25-09 $-63

25-10 $-30

25-11 $-25

25-12 $-68

26-01 $-30

26-02 $53

26-03 $-65

26-04 $48

26-05 $85

26-06 $-65

26-07 $45

26-08 $-65

26-09 $-5

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

046 1 hits 048 1 hits 112 1 hits 189 1 hits 344 1 hits 468 1 hits 479 1 hits 489 1 hits 557 1 hits 667 1 hits 788 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 11)

Date	Draw	Number	Family	Payout	Trigger Reason
2026-07-24	Midday	984	489	+$37.50	562 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.37x overdue)
2026-07-17	Midday	878	788	+$75.00	1325 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.98x overdue)
2026-05-15	Midday	434	344	+$75.00	1102 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.31x overdue)
2026-05-12	Midday	211	112	+$75.00	1485 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.46x overdue)
2026-04-15	Midday	479	479	+$37.50	762 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.57x overdue)
2026-04-08	Midday	755	557	+$75.00	1315 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.95x overdue)
2026-02-21	Midday	046	046	+$37.50	704 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.22x overdue)
2026-02-19	Midday	766	667	+$75.00	1179 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.54x overdue)
2026-01-13	Midday	918	189	+$37.50	677 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.06x overdue)
2025-11-28	Midday	408	048	+$37.50	635 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.81x overdue)
2025-10-07	Midday	648	468	+$37.50	1160 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (6.96x overdue)