Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report

Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 25,020 total plays 10.0 families/draw

Switch Strategy:

Ranks every family by how far past its expected gap it currently is (current skip ÷ expected skip) and plays the 10 most overdue.

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m

Draw Time: All Draws Day 🌙 Night

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Law-of-large-numbers mean-reversion model. Dynamically calculates every family's current skip divided by its theoretical probability-based expected gap (10^d ÷ ways to win). Families with the highest skip-to-expectation ratio are played.

Execution & Cost Profile

Play Sizing: Averages 10.0 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.50 (10.0 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Night · 09/05/2026

Playing 10 families for $2.50 total stake.

135 distinct 088 double 226 double 029 distinct 348 distinct 389 distinct 566 double 345 distinct 047 distinct 112 double

Family	Type	Selection Reason
135	distinct	1026 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (6.16x overdue)
088	double	1767 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.30x overdue)
226	double	1750 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.25x overdue)
029	distinct	679 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.07x overdue)
348	distinct	644 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.86x overdue)
389	distinct	640 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.84x overdue)
566	double	1277 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.83x overdue)
345	distinct	629 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.77x overdue)
047	distinct	583 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.50x overdue)
112	double	1101 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.30x overdue)

📊 Key performance metrics (All-Time walk-forward)

Full Archive History

Evaluated across 2,502 drawings (2023-04-01 → 2026-09-02).

Net Profit -$330

Return on Investment -5.3%

Hit Rate 0.48%

Max Drawdown -$-605

Active Drawings 2,502

Total Plays Placed 25,020

Total Winning Hits 120

Gross Revenue $5,925

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Stake per family per drawing:

Starting Bankroll ($):

Total Staked (Cost) $6,255

Total Payout (Gross) $5,925

Net Profit / Loss -$330

Final Bankroll $170

Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-605.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-907.

🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M	3M	6M	1Y ★	2Y	3Y	All Time	Profitable Months
-$10 -100.0% ROI	-$132.5 -41.4% ROI	+$125 16.1% ROI	-$35 -2.1% ROI	+$15 0.4% ROI	-$127.5 -2.4% ROI	-$330 -5.3% ROI	4 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

Year	Cost	Gross	Net Profit	Hits	ROI
2023	$1,375	$937.5	-$437.5	25	-31.8%
2024	$1,830	$1,762.5	-$67.5	34	-3.7%
2025	$1,825	$1,725	-$100	36	-5.5%
2026	$1,225	$1,500	+$275	25	22.4%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

23-04 $-75

23-05 $33

23-06 $0

23-07 $-43

23-08 $-80

23-09 $-38

23-10 $-43

23-11 $-75

23-12 $-118

24-01 $-118

24-02 $80

24-03 $33

24-04 $113

24-05 $-80

24-06 $75

24-07 $-5

24-08 $33

24-09 $-38

24-10 $-43

24-11 $-38

24-12 $-80

25-01 $33

25-02 $-65

25-03 $33

25-04 $0

25-05 $70

25-06 $75

25-07 $-43

25-08 $-80

25-09 $188

25-10 $-118

25-11 $-75

25-12 $-118

26-01 $33

26-02 $10

26-03 $108

26-04 $-75

26-05 $333

26-06 $0

26-07 $-118

26-08 $-5

26-09 $-10

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

017 2 hits 018 2 hits 023 2 hits 024 2 hits 036 2 hits 049 2 hits 149 2 hits 158 2 hits 179 2 hits 267 2 hits 299 2 hits 346 2 hits 367 2 hits 369 2 hits 378 2 hits 457 2 hits 489 2 hits 669 2 hits 689 2 hits 788 2 hits 001 1 hits 005 1 hits 007 1 hits 011 1 hits 012 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 25)

Date	Draw	Number	Family	Payout	Trigger Reason
2026-08-23	Day	745	457	+$37.50	560 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.36x overdue)
2026-08-08	Night	197	179	+$37.50	537 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.22x overdue)
2026-08-04	Day	771	177	+$75.00	1574 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.72x overdue)
2026-07-30	Night	870	078	+$37.50	565 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.39x overdue)
2026-06-24	Night	419	149	+$37.50	495 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.97x overdue)
2026-06-24	Day	409	049	+$37.50	517 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.10x overdue)
2026-06-02	Night	303	033	+$75.00	1121 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.36x overdue)
2026-05-30	Night	111	111	+$225.00	3491 draws since last hit — expected ~1000 (3.49x overdue)
2026-05-28	Day	158	158	+$37.50	464 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.78x overdue)
2026-05-20	Night	639	369	+$37.50	477 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.86x overdue)
2026-05-18	Night	669	669	+$75.00	1055 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.17x overdue)
2026-05-03	Day	992	299	+$75.00	1063 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.19x overdue)
2026-05-02	Night	603	036	+$37.50	486 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.92x overdue)
2026-04-30	Day	381	138	+$37.50	595 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.57x overdue)
2026-04-06	Day	860	068	+$37.50	772 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.63x overdue)
2026-03-28	Night	343	334	+$75.00	1182 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.55x overdue)
2026-03-26	Night	244	244	+$75.00	1286 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.86x overdue)
2026-03-23	Night	618	168	+$37.50	721 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.33x overdue)
2026-03-14	Night	633	336	+$75.00	1678 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.03x overdue)
2026-02-20	Day	710	017	+$37.50	1240 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (7.44x overdue)
2026-02-17	Day	535	355	+$75.00	1365 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.10x overdue)
2026-02-12	Night	873	378	+$37.50	633 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.80x overdue)
2026-01-22	Night	878	788	+$75.00	1294 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.88x overdue)
2026-01-14	Day	662	266	+$75.00	1158 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.47x overdue)
2026-01-02	Night	896	689	+$37.50	622 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.73x overdue)