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Arkansas AR Cash 3: Followed-By (empirical top 5) hit 178 (+$38)!

Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report

RB9 Math · Law of Large Numbers Deficit Hold (Top 1)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 1,802 total plays 1.0 families/draw

Mean-reversion hold: exploits root deficits predicted by the Law of Large Numbers (+3.93% All-Time ROI across 13,855 draws).

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m
Draw Time: All Draws ☀️ Midday 🌆 Evening 🌙 Night

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Mean-reversion hold: exploits root deficits predicted by the Law of Large Numbers (+3.93% All-Time ROI across 13,855 draws).

Execution & Cost Profile

  • Play Sizing: Averages 1.0 boxed families per drawing.
  • Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.25 (1.0 × $0.25).
  • Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
  • Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/07/2026

⚡ ACTIVE HOLD CYCLE Hold Draw 10 of 10
🛑 10-DRAW CUT-OFF · $0.00 SIT OUT / DO NOT PLAY
Hold Progress Rail: Option A · Velocity Front-Loaded (Draw 10 / 10)
1 ✓ Past
2 ✓ Past
3 ✓ Past
4 ✓ Past
5 ✓ Past
6 ✓ Past
7 ✓ Past
8 ✓ Past
9 ✓ Past
10 🛑 SIT OUT
Trigger Drawing
#992
Night (2026-09-03)
Cumulative Stake Invested
$2.50
$0.25/draw × 10 draws
Payout if Dropped Now
$37.50
Stops immediately on drop
Net Profit if Dropped Now
+$35.00
Gross payout minus cumulative stake

Active numbers in this hold cycle:

027 distinct
FamilyTypeCurrent StatusSelection Reason
027 distinct Hold Draw 10 of 10 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 672 Evening 2026-09-03) · 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 672 Evening 2026-09-03) [RB9 Root 9 Aligned] · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 992)
⚡ STRATEGY EFFICIENCY & CAPITAL OPTIMIZATION TERMINAL Efficiency Grade: F Archetype: PRECISION CHASER
Ticket Waste Index: 97.6%

Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.

Dimension / Metric Standard Baseline ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized Variance & Capital Lift
Total Plays Placed 500 256 -48.8% wagers eliminated
Winning Hits Captured 2 1 50.0% hits retained
Hit Rate Efficiency 0.40% 0.39% -0.01%
Capital Invested $125.00 $85.75 +$61.00 saved
Net Profit / Loss +$25.00 -$10.75 -$35.75 turnaround
Return on Investment (ROI) 20.0% -12.5% -32.5% ROI Lift
🛡️ Tailored Optimization Rules Applied to this Model
Top-K Concentration: Capped at top lines to eliminate dilution
Anti-Repeat Shield: 15-draw trailing blackout (< 0.08% repeat rate)
Wave Sizing & Trough Protection: $0.50 Wave 1 / $0.00 Dead Zone (Draws 4–6)
Draw 10 Zero Exposure Mandate: 🛑 $0.00 Sit Out on Step 10 (Terminal Hard-Stop)

📊 Key performance metrics (5 years walk-forward)

Multi-Year Consistency Window Night Slot Only

Evaluated across 1,828 drawings (2021-09-05 → 2026-09-06). Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$156 (30.1% ROI across 2,075 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$0.5
Return on Investment -0.1%
Hit Rate 0.61%
Max Drawdown -$-138.75
Active Drawings 1,828
Total Plays Placed 1,802
Total Winning Hits 11
Gross Revenue $450
💰 Audited Prize Payouts & Hits by Pattern Kind Dynamic Accounting: Doubles pay 2× ($75.00) · Triples pay 6× ($225.00)
double 2x Double ($75.00)
2 hits
+$150
distinct Base ($37.50)
11 hits
+$412.5

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Total Staked (Cost) $450.5
Total Payout (Gross) $450
Net Profit / Loss -$0.5
Final Bankroll $499.5
Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-138.75. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-208.
🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M 3M 6M 1Y ★ 2Y 3Y All Time Profitable Months
-$1.5
-100.0% ROI 		-$17
-100.0% ROI 		-$39.75
-100.0% ROI 		-$85.25
-100.0% ROI 		+$11
6.2% ROI 		-$5.5
-2.1% ROI 		+$156.25
30.1% ROI 		0 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

YearCostGrossNet ProfitHitsROI
2010 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2011 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2012 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2013 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2014 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2015 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2016 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2017 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2018 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2019 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2020 $0 $0 +$0 0 —
2021 $91.25 $262.5 +$171.25 5 187.7%
2022 $91.25 $112.5 +$21.25 3 23.3%
2023 $91.25 $37.5 -$53.75 1 -58.9%
2024 $91.5 $150 +$58.5 3 63.9%
2025 $91.25 $112.5 +$21.25 3 23.3%
2026 $62.25 $0 -$62.25 0 -100.0%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

21-10 $-8
21-11 $-8
21-12 $30
22-01 $30
22-02 $-7
22-03 $-8
22-04 $30
22-05 $-8
22-06 $30
22-07 $-8
22-08 $-8
22-09 $-8
22-10 $-8
22-11 $-8
22-12 $-8
23-01 $-8
23-02 $-7
23-03 $-8
23-04 $-8
23-05 $-8
23-06 $-8
23-07 $30
23-08 $-8
23-09 $-8
23-10 $-8
23-11 $-8
23-12 $-8
24-01 $-8
24-02 $30
24-03 $-8
24-04 $-8
24-05 $-8
24-06 $30
24-07 $-8
24-08 $-8
24-09 $-8
24-10 $67
24-11 $-8
24-12 $-8
25-01 $30
25-02 $68
25-03 $-8
25-04 $-8
25-05 $-8
25-06 $-8
25-07 $-8
25-08 $-8
25-09 $-8
25-10 $-8
25-11 $-8
25-12 $-8
26-01 $-8
26-02 $-7
26-03 $-8
26-04 $-8
26-05 $-8
26-06 $-8
26-07 $-8
26-08 $-8
26-09 $-2

🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)

13 Documented Drops in Backtest

Distribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.

Average Draw to Drop
Draw 5.2
Out of 10 max steps
Early Strike Rate (Draws 1–3)
38.5%
5 of 13 drops
Peak Drop Draw
Draw 3
3 drops landed here
Stop-on-Drop Discipline
Early Exit
Terminates upon drop
Draw 1 1 drops (7.7%)
Draw 2 1 drops (7.7%)
Draw 3 ★ 3 drops (23.1%)
Draw 4 1 drops (7.7%)
Draw 5 0 drops (0.0%)
Draw 6 3 drops (23.1%)
Draw 7 1 drops (7.7%)
Draw 8 1 drops (7.7%)
Draw 9 1 drops (7.7%)
Draw 10 1 drops (7.7%)

💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

237 4 hits 234 2 hits 357 2 hits 037 1 hits 227 1 hits 368 1 hits 489 1 hits 779 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 13)

DateDrawNumberFamilyPattern TypePayoutTrigger Reason
2025-02-27 Night 273 237 distinct +$37.50 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 223 Night 2025-02-26) · 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 612 Evening 2025-02-26) [RB9 Root 3 Aligned] · Hold Draw 3 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 223)
2025-02-12 Night 357 357 distinct +$37.50 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 279 Evening 2025-02-12) · 56 brings digit 3 and/or pair 37 (from 653 Night 2025-02-11) [RB9 Root 6 Aligned] · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 279)
2025-01-26 Night 372 237 distinct +$37.50 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 326 Night 2025-01-25) · 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 575 Evening 2025-01-25) [RB9 Root 3 Aligned] · Hold Draw 3 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 326)
2024-10-27 Night 227 227 double 2x Double +$75.00 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 282 Night 2024-10-25) · false trip could bring another false trip or create a trip (from 282 Night 2024-10-25) — doubles favored [RB9 Root 2 Aligned] · Hold Draw 6 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 282)
2024-06-01 Night 327 237 distinct +$37.50 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 976 Midday 2024-06-01) · 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 758 Night 2024-05-31) [RB9 Root 3 Aligned] · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 976)
2024-02-07 Night 372 237 distinct +$37.50 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 679 Night 2024-02-05) · 2 drawn in sets: 2&6, 5&2, 7&2 (from 602 Evening 2024-02-05) [RB9 Root 3 Aligned] · Hold Draw 6 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 679)
2023-07-25 Night 432 234 distinct +$37.50 01 pair usually brings 32, 28 pairs (from 061 Night 2023-07-22) · after 0: look for 24 or 63 pair (from 061 Night 2023-07-22) [RB9 Root 9 Aligned] · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 992)
2022-06-04 Night 368 368 distinct +$37.50 pairs after 00: fall next draw or draw after (from 009 Midday 2022-06-02) · 00 often brings 66, 63 (from 009 Midday 2022-06-02) [RB9 Root 8 Aligned] · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 009)
2022-04-29 Night 234 234 distinct +$37.50 after 0: look for 24 or 63 pair (from 220 Evening 2022-04-27) · 6: look for 2 or 3 to follow (from 766 Night 2022-04-27) — contains digit 2 [RB9 Root 9 Aligned] · Hold Draw 6 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 766)
2022-01-09 Night 307 037 distinct +$37.50 7 pairs frequently with 5, 2, 0, 1 (from 927 Night 2022-01-08) · 9: look for 3 or 7 to follow (from 927 Night 2022-01-08) — contains digit 3 [RB9 Root 1 Aligned] · Hold Draw 3 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 927)
2021-12-09 Night 498 489 distinct +$37.50 25 pair travels with pair 89 (reciprocal) (from 275 Evening 2021-12-08) · 25 pair travels with pair 89 (reciprocal) (from 532 Midday 2021-12-08) [RB9 Root 3 Aligned] · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 275)
2021-09-16 Night 537 357 distinct +$37.50 66 brings 35, 38, 58 (from 686 Evening 2021-09-13) · 5: look for 7; sets 7&5, 5&2, 7&0, 7&1 (from 508 Night 2021-09-12) [RB9 Root 6 Aligned] · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 686)
2021-09-06 Night 797 779 double 2x Double +$75.00 after 59: watch for two '2' digits (e.g. 229) or double XX9 with 9 (from 915 Midday 2021-09-03) · 23 brings a 6, 9 or both within the next couple draws (from 324 Night 2021-09-03) — contains digit 9 [RB9 Root 5 Aligned] · Hold Draw 9 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 324)