Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 1)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 480 total plays 0.9 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 0.9 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.22 (0.9 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/08/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 588 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+3.36), ⚡ Mirror Echo (372)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 472) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Moderate Efficiency: Breakeven equilibrium; capital preserved with reduced downside exposure.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 500 | 230 | -54.0% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 3 | 1 | 33.3% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.60% | 0.43% | -0.17% |
| Capital Invested | $125.00 | $76.25 | +$67.50 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$100.00 | -$1.25 | -$101.25 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 80.0% | -1.6% | -81.6% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (6 months walk-forward)
Evaluated across 549 drawings (2026-03-09 → 2026-09-07). Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$172 (5.0% ROI across 13,863 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$5.25
-100.0% ROI |
+$23.25
44.9% ROI |
+$30
25.0% ROI |
+$193.5
75.4% ROI |
+$69.75
13.2% ROI |
+$95.25
11.8% ROI |
+$171.75
5.0% ROI |
6 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | $86 | $37.5 | -$48.5 | 1 | -56.4% |
| 2011 | $180.75 | $300 | +$119.25 | 5 | 66.0% |
| 2012 | $181.75 | $337.5 | +$155.75 | 7 | 85.7% |
| 2013 | $182.25 | $75 | -$107.25 | 1 | -58.8% |
| 2014 | $182.5 | $187.5 | +$5 | 4 | 2.7% |
| 2015 | $182 | $112.5 | -$69.5 | 3 | -38.2% |
| 2016 | $183 | $112.5 | -$70.5 | 3 | -38.5% |
| 2017 | $182.5 | $187.5 | +$5 | 4 | 2.7% |
| 2018 | $182.5 | $187.5 | +$5 | 3 | 2.7% |
| 2019 | $182.5 | $225 | +$42.5 | 4 | 23.3% |
| 2020 | $183 | $112.5 | -$70.5 | 2 | -38.5% |
| 2021 | $273.75 | $225 | -$48.75 | 3 | -17.8% |
| 2022 | $273.75 | $187.5 | -$86.25 | 3 | -31.5% |
| 2023 | $273.75 | $525 | +$251.25 | 8 | 91.8% |
| 2024 | $274.5 | $225 | -$49.5 | 3 | -18.0% |
| 2025 | $273.75 | $225 | -$48.75 | 3 | -17.8% |
| 2026 | $187.5 | $375 | +$187.5 | 5 | 100.0% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
3 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 3)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Midday | 411 | 114 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 6, Cici Master Quad (4-9-7-1), Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+3.32), ⚡ Mirror Echo (936)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 030) |
| 2026-04-18 | Evening | 112 | 112 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (1655 skips, z=+3.81)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 437) |
| 2026-03-27 | Night | 992 | 299 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Master Quad (9-4-2-6), Shield Safe, Overdue (602 skips, z=+3.39)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 331) |