Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 882 total plays 2.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.70 (2.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Evening · 09/13/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 057 | distinct | Hold Draw 8 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (17 skips)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 878) |
| 237 | distinct | Hold Draw 8 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (148 skips)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 878) |
| 245 | distinct | Hold Draw 8 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (90 skips)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 878) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 165 | -89.0% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 4 | 1 | 25.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.27% | 0.61% | +0.34% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $54.75 | +$333.75 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$225.00 | -$17.25 | +$207.75 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -60.0% | -31.5% | +28.5% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 314 drawings (2025-09-11 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-205 (-28.1% ROI across 974 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$5.25
-100.0% ROI |
-$7.5
-16.7% ROI |
-$66
-63.8% ROI |
-$145.5
-66.0% ROI |
+$32.25
7.1% ROI |
-$165
-23.9% ROI |
-$205.5
-28.1% ROI |
2 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $99 | $0 | -$99 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2024 | $235.5 | $150 | -$85.5 | 4 | -36.3% |
| 2025 | $234.75 | $337.5 | +$102.75 | 6 | 43.8% |
| 2026 | $161.25 | $37.5 | -$123.75 | 1 | -76.7% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
2 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 2)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11 | Evening | 842 | 248 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 5, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (96 skips)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 084) |
| 2025-11-03 | Evening | 459 | 459 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 9, Date Anchor 5, Shield Safe, Overdue (310 skips, z=+-1.5)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 103) |