Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 84 total plays 0.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 0.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.20 (0.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Morning · 09/13/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 458 | distinct | Hold Draw 1 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (149 skips)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 891) |
| 467 | distinct | Hold Draw 1 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (119 skips)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 891) |
| 111 | triple | Hold Draw 1 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Master Quad (1-6-4-8), Shield Safe, Overdue (3285 skips, z=+3.5)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 891) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 69 | -95.4% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 4 | 1 | 25.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.27% | 1.45% | +1.18% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $24.00 | +$357.75 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$150.00 | +$51.00 | +$201.00 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -40.0% | 212.5% | +252.5% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 month walk-forward)
Evaluated across 104 drawings (2026-08-13 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-439 (-13.2% ROI across 4,436 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
+$16.5
78.6% ROI |
-$67.5
-37.5% ROI |
-$114
-27.5% ROI |
-$244.5
-27.7% ROI |
+$129
7.1% ROI |
-$172.5
-6.3% ROI |
-$439.5
-13.2% ROI |
4 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $801 | $525 | -$276 | 12 | -34.5% |
| 2024 | $942 | $637.5 | -$304.5 | 13 | -32.3% |
| 2025 | $939 | $1,237.5 | +$298.5 | 22 | 31.8% |
| 2026 | $645 | $487.5 | -$157.5 | 12 | -24.4% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
2 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 2)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Morning | 051 | 015 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 6, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (119 skips)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 710) |
| 2026-08-22 | Night | 571 | 157 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (872 skips, z=+-2.49), ⚡ Echo Pair (457)) · Hold Draw 9 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 457) |