Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 2,055 total plays 2.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.70 (2.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/09/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0027 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 9, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (1048 skips, z=+-1.68), ⚡ Echo Pair (7210)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6552) |
| 0223 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (90 skips), ⚡ Echo Pair (7210)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6552) |
| 0257 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 5, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (682 skips, z=+-1.68), ⚡ Echo Pair (7210)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6552) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 789 | -47.4% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 5 | 1 | 20.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.33% | 0.13% | -0.21% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $262.50 | +$177.75 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$187.50 | -$75.00 | -$262.50 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 50.0% | -28.6% | -78.6% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 731 drawings (2025-09-08 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-478 (-25.4% ROI across 2,513 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$11.25
-100.0% ROI |
+$270.75
259.7% ROI |
+$321.75
133.6% ROI |
+$48.75
9.5% ROI |
-$311.25
-29.3% ROI |
-$766.5
-47.6% ROI |
-$478.5
-25.4% ROI |
3 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $412.5 | $562.5 | +$150 | 1 | 36.4% |
| 2024 | $549 | $281.25 | -$267.75 | 2 | -48.8% |
| 2025 | $547.5 | $0 | -$547.5 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2026 | $375.75 | $562.5 | +$186.75 | 5 | 49.7% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
5 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 5)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Midday | 1736 | 1367 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (305 skips, z=+-3.31), ⚡ Echo Pair (6153)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 6153) |
| 2026-08-03 | Midday | 6153 | 1356 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 6, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (186 skips, z=+-3.84), ⚡ Mirror Echo (7018)) · Hold Draw 6 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 7018) |
| 2026-07-31 | Midday | 7018 | 0178 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (299 skips, z=+-2.27)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 7382) |
| 2026-07-10 | Evening | 0379 | 0379 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 1, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (775 skips, z=+-1.8), ⚡ Mirror Echo (4829)) · Hold Draw 9 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 4829) |
| 2026-05-22 | Midday | 8018 | 0188 | double 2x Double | +$187.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (379 skips, z=+-1.91), ⚡ Echo Pair (8305)) · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 8305) |