Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report

Pickstics Empirical Follower · Rolling 10-Draw Hold Ladder

Dynamic Walk-Forward 3,160 total plays 8.6 families/draw

Switch Strategy:

Full 10-draw hold ladder: each drawing enters the #1 historical follower into a 10-draw hold ladder. Numbers stack up on the playslip until hit or 10 draws pass.

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Full 10-draw hold ladder: each drawing enters the #1 historical follower into a 10-draw hold ladder. Numbers stack up on the playslip until hit or 10 draws pass.

Execution & Cost Profile

Play Sizing: Averages 8.6 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.16 (8.6 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Evening · 09/11/2026

🪜 ROLLING HOLD LADDER 10 Active Numbers on Ladder

Staggered 10-Draw Individual Clocks

Every candidate number runs on its own independent hold countdown clock. When a number drops, it exits the ladder immediately to secure profit. If it reaches 10 draws without dropping, the 10-draw cut-off expires the pick to prevent runaway losses.

Family	Pattern	Hold Draw & Progress Meter	Trigger Origin	Invested	Net if Dropped	Trigger Rationale
137	distinct	Hold Draw 10/10 Final Draw 0 left	#201 2026-08-31 · Evening	$2.50	+$35.00	Book followed-by: 993 -> 173
159	distinct	Hold Draw 9/10 Late Stage 1 left	#794 2026-09-01 · Evening	$2.25	+$35.25	Book followed-by: 201 -> 915
049	distinct	Hold Draw 8/10 Late Stage 2 left	#794 2026-09-02 · Evening	$2.00	+$35.50	followed family 479 2/12x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 794 -> 940
037	distinct	Hold Draw 7/10 Mid Stage 3 left	#030 2026-09-03 · Evening	$1.75	+$35.75	followed number 794 2/3x within 10 draws · followed family 479 3/12x within 10 draws
245	distinct	Hold Draw 6/10 Mid Stage 4 left	#439 2026-09-04 · Evening	$1.50	+$36.00	Book followed-by: 030 -> 524
078	distinct	Hold Draw 5/10 Mid Stage 5 left	#783 2026-09-05 · Evening	$1.25	+$36.25	Book followed-by: 439 -> 807
256	distinct	Hold Draw 4/10 Mid Stage 6 left	#002 2026-09-06 · Evening	$1.00	+$36.50	followed family 378 2/10x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 783 -> 652
255	double	Hold Draw 3/10 Early Stage 7 left	#428 2026-09-07 · Evening	$0.75	+$74.25	Double relative: 525 · followed family 378 1/10x within 10 draws
117	double	Hold Draw 2/10 Early Stage 8 left	#646 2026-09-08 · Evening	$0.50	+$74.50	Book followed-by: 428 -> 711
023	distinct	Hold Draw 1/10 Early Stage 9 left	#928 2026-09-09 · Evening	$0.25	+$37.25	Book followed-by: 646 -> 032 · followed family 248 2/14x within 10 draws

⚡ STRATEGY EFFICIENCY & CAPITAL OPTIMIZATION TERMINAL Efficiency Grade: C Archetype: CONVEYOR BELT

Ticket Waste Index: 86.9%

Quantitative Diagnostic: Improved but Underperforming: Filtering reduced losses, but underlying signal requires stronger trigger confluence.

Dimension / Metric	Standard Baseline	⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized	Variance & Capital Lift
Total Plays Placed	4,600	1,000	-78.3% wagers eliminated
Winning Hits Captured	17	4	23.5% hits retained
Hit Rate Efficiency	0.37%	0.40%	+0.03%
Capital Invested	$1150.00	$250.00	+$900.00 saved
Net Profit / Loss	-$437.50	-$62.50	+$375.00 turnaround
Return on Investment (ROI)	-38.0%	-25.0%	+13.0% ROI Lift

🛡️ Tailored Optimization Rules Applied to this Model

Top-K Concentration: Capped at top lines to eliminate dilution

Anti-Repeat Shield: 15-draw trailing blackout (< 0.08% repeat rate)

Wave Sizing & Trough Protection: $0.50 Wave 1 / $0.00 Dead Zone (Draws 4–6)

Draw 10 Zero Exposure Mandate: 🛑 $0.00 Sit Out on Step 10 (Terminal Hard-Stop)

📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)

★ Sweet Spot Window

Evaluated across 366 drawings (2025-09-09 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-685 (-25.6% ROI across 1,167 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$302.5

Return on Investment -38.3%

Hit Rate 0.35%

Max Drawdown -$-340

Active Drawings 366

Total Plays Placed 3,160

Total Winning Hits 11

Gross Revenue $487.5

💰 Audited Prize Payouts & Hits by Pattern Kind Dynamic Accounting: Doubles pay 2× ($75.00) · Triples pay 6× ($225.00)

distinct Base ($37.50)

10 hits

+$375

double 2x Double ($75.00)

2 hits

+$150

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Stake per family per drawing:

Starting Bankroll ($):

Total Staked (Cost) $790

Total Payout (Gross) $487.5

Net Profit / Loss -$302.5

Final Bankroll $197.5

Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-340.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-510.

🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M	3M	6M	1Y ★	2Y	3Y	All Time	Profitable Months
-$19.25 -100.0% ROI	-$51.75 -31.5% ROI	-$180.5 -49.0% ROI	-$302.5 -38.3% ROI	-$503.75 -30.9% ROI	-$736.25 -29.9% ROI	-$684.75 -25.6% ROI	3 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

Year	Cost	Gross	Net Profit	Hits	ROI
2023	$412.25	$450	+$37.75	12	9.2%
2024	$842.5	$675	-$167.5	16	-19.9%
2025	$843.5	$525	-$318.5	13	-37.8%
2026	$574	$337.5	-$236.5	8	-41.2%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

25-10 $38

25-11 $-33

25-12 $-71

26-01 $-37

26-02 $-28

26-03 $9

26-04 $-35

26-05 $-28

26-06 $-66

26-07 $3

26-08 $-35

26-09 $-19

🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)

12 Documented Drops in Backtest

Distribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.

Average Draw to Drop

Draw 5.3

Out of 10 max steps

Early Strike Rate (Draws 1–3)

33.3%

4 of 12 drops

Peak Drop Draw

Draw 4

3 drops landed here

Stop-on-Drop Discipline

Early Exit

Terminates upon drop

Draw 1 2 drops (16.7%)

Draw 2 0 drops (0.0%)

Draw 3 2 drops (16.7%)

Draw 4 ★ 3 drops (25.0%)

Draw 5 0 drops (0.0%)

Draw 6 0 drops (0.0%)

Draw 7 2 drops (16.7%)

Draw 8 0 drops (0.0%)

Draw 9 1 drops (8.3%)

Draw 10 2 drops (16.7%)

💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

012 1 hits 025 1 hits 038 1 hits 048 1 hits 067 1 hits 068 1 hits 116 1 hits 124 1 hits 149 1 hits 188 1 hits 249 1 hits 369 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 12)

Date	Draw	Number	Family	Pattern Type	Payout	Trigger Reason
2026-08-31	Evening	201	012	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 7 of 10] from 485: Book followed-by: 485 -> 102 · followed family 235 1/11x within 10 draws
2026-07-10	Evening	881	188	double 2x Double	+$75.00	[Hold Draw 10 of 10] from 652: followed family 256 2/12x within 10 draws · followed number 241 2/4x within 10 draws
2026-05-31	Evening	491	149	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 1 of 10] from 113: Book followed-by: 113 -> 491
2026-04-08	Evening	680	068	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 4 of 10] from 307: Book followed-by: 307 -> 680
2026-03-17	Evening	308	038	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 3 of 10] from 615: Book followed-by: 615 -> 803 · followed number 227 1/4x within 10 draws
2026-03-07	Evening	502	025	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 4 of 10] from 095: Book followed-by: 095 -> 025
2026-02-21	Evening	804	048	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 1 of 10] from 734: Book followed-by: 734 -> 804 · followed family 059 1/13x within 10 draws
2026-01-10	Evening	294	249	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 10 of 10] from 250: Book followed-by: 250 -> 249
2025-11-29	Evening	670	067	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 9 of 10] from 926: Book followed-by: 926 -> 760
2025-10-12	Evening	161	116	double 2x Double	+$75.00	[Hold Draw 7 of 10] from 619: Book followed-by: 619 -> 611
2025-10-04	Evening	124	124	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 4 of 10] from 556: Book followed-by: 556 -> 241
2025-09-17	Evening	396	369	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 3 of 10] from 526: Book followed-by: 526 -> 639