Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Empirical Follower (10-Draw Hold - Top 5 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 489 total plays 2.7 families/draw
Wide coverage portfolio hold: plays the top 5 historical follower lines for up to 10 drawings straight until a drop occurs to lock in net profit.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Wide coverage portfolio hold: plays the top 5 historical follower lines for up to 10 drawings straight until a drop occurs to lock in net profit.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.7 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.67 (2.7 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Evening · 09/11/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Book followed-by: 993 -> 173 · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 201) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,503 | 76 | -94.9% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 6 | 1 | 16.7% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.40% | 1.32% | +0.92% |
| Capital Invested | $375.75 | $25.75 | +$355.25 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$150.75 | +$11.75 | +$162.50 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -40.1% | 45.6% | +85.8% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (6 months walk-forward)
Evaluated across 183 drawings (2026-03-11 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-120 (-17.5% ROI across 1,167 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$2
-100.0% ROI |
-$55.25
-100.0% ROI |
-$47.25
-38.7% ROI |
-$81.75
-30.4% ROI |
-$92.75
-19.8% ROI |
-$75.75
-11.9% ROI |
-$119.75
-17.5% ROI |
4 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $87.5 | $0 | -$87.5 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2024 | $171.75 | $262.5 | +$90.75 | 5 | 52.8% |
| 2025 | $228.25 | $225 | -$3.25 | 6 | -1.4% |
| 2026 | $194.75 | $75 | -$119.75 | 2 | -61.5% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
2 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 2)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Evening | 879 | 789 | distinct | +$37.50 | Double relative: 789 · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 667) |
| 2026-04-01 | Evening | 654 | 456 | distinct | +$37.50 | followed family 145 3/10x within 10 draws · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 774) |