Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 483 total plays 2.6 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.6 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.66 (2.6 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Evening · 09/11/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (268 skips, z=+0.03)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 201) |
| 029 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (131 skips)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 201) |
| 589 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Date Anchor 9, Shield Safe, Overdue (93 skips)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 201) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 744 | -50.4% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 6 | 1 | 16.7% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.40% | 0.13% | -0.27% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $249.00 | +$189.00 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$37.50 | -$174.00 | -$136.50 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -10.0% | -69.9% | -59.9% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (6 months walk-forward)
Evaluated across 183 drawings (2026-03-11 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$325 (37.1% ROI across 1,167 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$6
-100.0% ROI |
-$52.5
-100.0% ROI |
-$83.25
-68.9% ROI |
-$32.25
-12.5% ROI |
+$294
55.4% ROI |
+$357
44.3% ROI |
+$324.75
37.1% ROI |
4 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $138.75 | $112.5 | -$26.25 | 3 | -18.9% |
| 2024 | $274.5 | $412.5 | +$138 | 9 | 50.3% |
| 2025 | $273.75 | $487.5 | +$213.75 | 10 | 78.1% |
| 2026 | $188.25 | $187.5 | -$0.75 | 3 | -0.4% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
1 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 1)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Evening | 108 | 018 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 9, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (100 skips)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 680) |