Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 1)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 343 total plays 0.9 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 0.9 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.23 (0.9 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Evening · 09/11/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 166 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (268 skips, z=+0.03)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 201) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 500 | 217 | -56.6% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 4 | 1 | 25.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.80% | 0.46% | -0.34% |
| Capital Invested | $125.00 | $72.25 | +$70.75 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$62.50 | -$34.75 | -$97.25 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 50.0% | -48.1% | -98.1% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 366 drawings (2025-09-09 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$83 (28.5% ROI across 1,167 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$2
-100.0% ROI |
+$20
114.3% ROI |
-$2.75
-6.8% ROI |
+$139.25
162.4% ROI |
+$123
69.5% ROI |
+$106.5
39.7% ROI |
+$83.25
28.5% ROI |
5 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $46.25 | $0 | -$46.25 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2024 | $91.5 | $75 | -$16.5 | 1 | -18.0% |
| 2025 | $91.25 | $150 | +$58.75 | 3 | 64.4% |
| 2026 | $62.75 | $150 | +$87.25 | 3 | 139.0% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
5 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 5)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Evening | 723 | 237 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (959 skips, z=+0.82)) · Hold Draw 6 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 398) |
| 2026-02-22 | Evening | 238 | 238 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (221 skips, z=+-1.24)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 651) |
| 2026-01-26 | Evening | 272 | 227 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (91 skips)) · Hold Draw 3 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 836) |
| 2025-12-14 | Evening | 270 | 027 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 9, Cici Master Quad (7-2-0-4), Shield Safe, Overdue (280 skips, z=+0.39)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 777) |
| 2025-10-05 | Evening | 619 | 169 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (166 skips, z=+-0.2)) · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 862) |