Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 1,026 total plays 2.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.70 (2.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Evening · 09/09/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0025 | double | Hold Draw 2 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Master Quad (5-0-8-2), Shield Safe, Overdue (1318 skips, z=+0.64)) · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 9950) |
| 2277 | double/double | Hold Draw 2 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 9, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (414 skips, z=+-0.09)) · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 9950) |
| 5799 | double | Hold Draw 2 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Date Anchor 5, Shield Safe, Overdue (1320 skips, z=+0.64)) · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 9950) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 1,350 | -10.0% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 0 | 0 | 100% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.00% | 0.00% | +0.00% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $450.00 | +$37.50 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$375.00 | -$450.00 | -$75.00 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -100.0% | -100.0% | +0.0% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 366 drawings (2025-09-07 → 2026-09-07). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-593 (-67.8% ROI across 1,166 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$5.25
-100.0% ROI |
-$51.75
-100.0% ROI |
-$120
-100.0% ROI |
-$256.5
-100.0% ROI |
-$436.5
-82.3% ROI |
-$523.5
-65.1% ROI |
-$593.25
-67.8% ROI |
0 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $138.75 | $0 | -$138.75 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2024 | $274.5 | $187.5 | -$87 | 2 | -31.7% |
| 2025 | $273.75 | $93.75 | -$180 | 1 | -65.8% |
| 2026 | $187.5 | $0 | -$187.5 | 0 | -100.0% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
1 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 1)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Evening | 6204 | 0246 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (368 skips, z=+-1.38)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 2701) |