Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 1)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 343 total plays 0.9 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 0.9 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.23 (0.9 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Day · 09/11/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1479 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (95 skips)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 0584) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 500 | 143 | -71.4% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 1 | 1 | 100.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.20% | 0.70% | +0.50% |
| Capital Invested | $125.00 | $47.75 | +$89.25 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$31.25 | +$46.00 | +$77.25 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -25.0% | 96.3% | +121.3% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 366 drawings (2025-09-09 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-104 (-35.7% ROI across 1,167 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$2
-100.0% ROI |
-$17.5
-100.0% ROI |
-$40.25
-100.0% ROI |
+$8
9.3% ROI |
-$83.25
-47.0% ROI |
-$81
-30.2% ROI |
-$104.25
-35.7% ROI |
1 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $46.25 | $0 | -$46.25 | 0 | -100.0% |
| 2024 | $91.5 | $93.75 | +$2.25 | 1 | 2.5% |
| 2025 | $91.25 | $93.75 | +$2.5 | 1 | 2.7% |
| 2026 | $62.75 | $0 | -$62.75 | 0 | -100.0% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
1 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 1)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-26 | Evening | 1352 | 1235 | distinct | +$93.75 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (637 skips, z=+-1.31)) · Hold Draw 5 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 1038) |