Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 1,032 total plays 2.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.70 (2.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Day · 09/10/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 111 | triple | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Master Quad (8-3-1-5), Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+1.66)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 698) |
| 133 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Master Quad (8-3-1-5), Shield Safe, Overdue (176 skips, z=+0.84)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 698) |
| 012 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Date Root 3, Shield Safe, Overdue (99 skips)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 698) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 63 | -95.8% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 8 | 1 | 12.5% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.53% | 1.59% | +1.05% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $21.00 | +$359.25 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$37.50 | +$54.00 | +$16.50 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 10.0% | 257.1% | +247.1% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 366 drawings (2025-09-08 → 2026-09-09). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-201 (-22.9% ROI across 1,168 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$6.75
-100.0% ROI |
-$15.75
-29.6% ROI |
+$28.5
23.5% ROI |
-$70.5
-27.3% ROI |
-$119.25
-22.4% ROI |
-$206.25
-25.6% ROI |
-$201
-22.9% ROI |
3 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $138.75 | $75 | -$63.75 | 1 | -45.9% |
| 2024 | $274.5 | $337.5 | +$63 | 8 | 23.0% |
| 2025 | $273.75 | $75 | -$198.75 | 2 | -72.6% |
| 2026 | $189 | $187.5 | -$1.5 | 4 | -0.8% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
5 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 5)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Evening | 138 | 138 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 3, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (493 skips, z=+0)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 874) |
| 2026-05-14 | Evening | 199 | 199 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 1, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (220 skips, z=+-0.19)) · Hold Draw 8 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 461) |
| 2026-05-06 | Evening | 461 | 146 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 2, Cici Master Quad (1-6-4-8), Shield Safe, Overdue (312 skips, z=+-0.62)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 082) |
| 2026-02-24 | Evening | 130 | 013 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (125 skips)) · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 283) |
| 2025-09-13 | Evening | 983 | 389 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (4/5 votes, ★★★★☆, 2.05x boost · Follower, Root 2, Date Anchor 9, Shield Safe) · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 906) |