Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report

Pickstics Empirical Follower · Rolling 10-Draw Hold Ladder

Dynamic Walk-Forward 6,145 total plays 8.4 families/draw

Switch Strategy:

Full 10-draw hold ladder: each drawing enters the #1 historical follower into a 10-draw hold ladder. Numbers stack up on the playslip until hit or 10 draws pass.

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m

Draw Time: All Draws ☀️ Midday 🌆 Evening

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Full 10-draw hold ladder: each drawing enters the #1 historical follower into a 10-draw hold ladder. Numbers stack up on the playslip until hit or 10 draws pass.

Execution & Cost Profile

Play Sizing: Averages 8.4 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.10 (8.4 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/13/2026

🪜 ROLLING HOLD LADDER 9 Active Numbers on Ladder

Staggered 10-Draw Individual Clocks

Every candidate number runs on its own independent hold countdown clock. When a number drops, it exits the ladder immediately to secure profit. If it reaches 10 draws without dropping, the 10-draw cut-off expires the pick to prevent runaway losses.

Family	Pattern	Hold Draw & Progress Meter	Trigger Origin	Invested	Net if Dropped	Trigger Rationale
037	distinct	Hold Draw 10/10 Final Draw 0 left	#455 2026-09-07 · Midday	$2.50	+$35.00	followed family 489 5/13x within 10 draws · followed number 114 2/4x within 10 draws
247	distinct	Hold Draw 9/10 Late Stage 1 left	#242 2026-09-07 · Evening	$2.25	+$35.25	Book followed-by: 455 -> 274 · followed family 489 1/13x within 10 draws
224	double	Hold Draw 8/10 Late Stage 2 left	#178 2026-09-08 · Midday	$2.00	+$73.00	followed number 242 1/4x within 10 draws · followed family 224 5/11x within 10 draws
177	double	Hold Draw 7/10 Mid Stage 3 left	#817 2026-09-08 · Evening	$1.75	+$73.25	followed family 178 2/21x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 178 -> 177
268	distinct	Hold Draw 6/10 Mid Stage 4 left	#178 2026-09-09 · Evening	$1.50	+$36.00	followed number 817 1/5x within 10 draws · followed family 178 2/21x within 10 draws
356	distinct	Hold Draw 4/10 Mid Stage 6 left	#260 2026-09-10 · Evening	$1.00	+$36.50	followed number 911 1/4x within 10 draws · followed family 119 1/12x within 10 draws
677	double	Hold Draw 3/10 Early Stage 7 left	#218 2026-09-11 · Midday	$0.75	+$74.25	followed number 260 1/3x within 10 draws · followed family 026 2/21x within 10 draws
049	distinct	Hold Draw 2/10 Early Stage 8 left	#524 2026-09-11 · Evening	$0.50	+$37.00	followed family 128 2/17x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 218 -> 409
047	distinct	Hold Draw 1/10 Early Stage 9 left	#246 2026-09-12 · Midday	$0.25	+$37.25	Book followed-by: 524 -> 704 · followed number 218 1/3x within 10 draws

⚡ STRATEGY EFFICIENCY & CAPITAL OPTIMIZATION TERMINAL Efficiency Grade: C Archetype: CONVEYOR BELT

Ticket Waste Index: 85.6%

Quantitative Diagnostic: Improved but Underperforming: Filtering reduced losses, but underlying signal requires stronger trigger confluence.

Dimension / Metric	Standard Baseline	⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized	Variance & Capital Lift
Total Plays Placed	4,421	1,000	-77.4% wagers eliminated
Winning Hits Captured	22	5	22.7% hits retained
Hit Rate Efficiency	0.50%	0.50%	+0.00%
Capital Invested	$1105.25	$250.00	+$855.25 saved
Net Profit / Loss	-$205.25	-$25.00	+$180.25 turnaround
Return on Investment (ROI)	-18.6%	-10.0%	+8.6% ROI Lift

🛡️ Tailored Optimization Rules Applied to this Model

Top-K Concentration: Capped at top lines to eliminate dilution

Anti-Repeat Shield: 15-draw trailing blackout (< 0.08% repeat rate)

Wave Sizing & Trough Protection: $0.50 Wave 1 / $0.00 Dead Zone (Draws 4–6)

Draw 10 Zero Exposure Mandate: 🛑 $0.00 Sit Out on Step 10 (Terminal Hard-Stop)

📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)

★ Sweet Spot Window

Evaluated across 730 drawings (2025-09-12 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-724 (-12.8% ROI across 2,514 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$298.75

Return on Investment -19.4%

Hit Rate 0.49%

Max Drawdown -$-342.75

Active Drawings 730

Total Plays Placed 6,145

Total Winning Hits 30

Gross Revenue $1,237.5

💰 Audited Prize Payouts & Hits by Pattern Kind Dynamic Accounting: Doubles pay 2× ($75.00) · Triples pay 6× ($225.00)

distinct Base ($37.50)

27 hits

+$1,012.5

double 2x Double ($75.00)

3 hits

+$225

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Stake per family per drawing:

Starting Bankroll ($):

Total Staked (Cost) $1,536.25

Total Payout (Gross) $1,237.5

Net Profit / Loss -$298.75

Final Bankroll $201.25

Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-342.75. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-514.

🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M	3M	6M	1Y ★	2Y	3Y	All Time	Profitable Months
+$44 141.9% ROI	-$87 -27.9% ROI	-$197.75 -27.4% ROI	-$298.75 -19.4% ROI	-$519.25 -16.3% ROI	-$487 -10.1% ROI	-$723.75 -12.8% ROI	4 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

Year	Cost	Gross	Net Profit	Hits	ROI
2023	$1,260	$937.5	-$322.5	24	-25.6%
2024	$1,656.25	$1,612.5	-$43.75	39	-2.6%
2025	$1,650	$1,462.5	-$187.5	36	-11.4%
2026	$1,107.5	$937.5	-$170	23	-15.3%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

25-10 $-66

25-11 $-33

25-12 $-31

26-01 $18

26-02 $-46

26-03 $56

26-04 $-106

26-05 $7

26-06 $-12

26-07 $-28

26-08 $-103

26-09 $44

🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)

30 Documented Drops in Backtest

Distribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.

Average Draw to Drop

Draw 5.7

Out of 10 max steps

Early Strike Rate (Draws 1–3)

20.0%

6 of 30 drops

Peak Drop Draw

Draw 6

8 drops landed here

Stop-on-Drop Discipline

Early Exit

Terminates upon drop

Draw 1 4 drops (13.3%)

Draw 2 2 drops (6.7%)

Draw 3 0 drops (0.0%)

Draw 4 4 drops (13.3%)

Draw 5 2 drops (6.7%)

Draw 6 ★ 8 drops (26.7%)

Draw 7 1 drops (3.3%)

Draw 8 3 drops (10.0%)

Draw 9 2 drops (6.7%)

Draw 10 4 drops (13.3%)

💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

235 2 hits 468 2 hits 014 1 hits 017 1 hits 022 1 hits 024 1 hits 036 1 hits 046 1 hits 047 1 hits 067 1 hits 123 1 hits 124 1 hits 158 1 hits 167 1 hits 234 1 hits 267 1 hits 269 1 hits 337 1 hits 345 1 hits 346 1 hits 349 1 hits 366 1 hits 367 1 hits 369 1 hits 478 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 25)

Date	Draw	Number	Family	Pattern Type	Payout	Trigger Reason
2026-09-06	Evening	489	489	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 6 of 10] from 673: Book followed-by: 673 -> 489
2026-09-05	Midday	740	047	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 10 of 10] from 248: followed family 248 1/14x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 248 -> 740
2026-08-15	Evening	864	468	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 7 of 10] from 523: followed number 523 1/5x within 10 draws · followed family 235 1/14x within 10 draws
2026-07-21	Evening	968	689	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 6 of 10] from 894: Book followed-by: 894 -> 689 · followed family 599 2/11x within 10 draws
2026-07-05	Midday	364	346	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 6 of 10] from 085: followed number 085 1/5x within 10 draws · followed family 058 2/30x within 10 draws
2026-07-03	Midday	748	478	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 10 of 10] from 386: Book followed-by: 386 -> 478 · followed family 049 2/14x within 10 draws
2026-06-30	Evening	693	369	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 4 of 10] from 417: followed number 417 2/6x within 10 draws · followed family 147 5/16x within 10 draws
2026-06-10	Evening	412	124	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 6 of 10] from 127: Book followed-by: 127 -> 142
2026-06-08	Evening	439	349	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 9 of 10] from 747: Book followed-by: 747 -> 394
2026-05-29	Midday	104	014	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 1 of 10] from 811: followed family 118 1/10x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 811 -> 410
2026-05-20	Midday	597	579	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 4 of 10] from 707: followed family 077 4/12x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 707 -> 597
2026-05-06	Midday	202	022	double 2x Double	+$75.00	[Hold Draw 6 of 10] from 164: followed number 164 2/4x within 10 draws · followed family 146 2/18x within 10 draws
2026-04-21	Evening	627	267	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 10 of 10] from 261: followed number 261 2/3x within 10 draws · followed family 126 2/13x within 10 draws
2026-03-28	Evening	204	024	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 1 of 10] from 231: followed number 231 1/6x within 10 draws · Pro-Zo relative: 240
2026-03-25	Evening	234	234	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 2 of 10] from 019: followed number 019 2/4x within 10 draws · followed family 019 3/16x within 10 draws
2026-03-18	Evening	373	337	double 2x Double	+$75.00	[Hold Draw 5 of 10] from 571: Pro-Zo relative: 373 · followed number 413 1/3x within 10 draws
2026-03-01	Evening	036	036	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 1 of 10] from 575: Book followed-by: 575 -> 630
2026-02-25	Evening	760	067	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 8 of 10] from 289: followed number 289 1/3x within 10 draws · followed family 289 3/15x within 10 draws
2026-02-02	Midday	617	167	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 4 of 10] from 639: followed family 369 1/16x within 10 draws · Book followed-by: 639 -> 716
2026-01-26	Evening	532	235	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 8 of 10] from 287: followed number 287 1/3x within 10 draws · followed family 278 1/13x within 10 draws
2026-01-24	Midday	534	345	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 1 of 10] from 246: Pro-Zo relative: 354 · followed number 786 1/4x within 10 draws
2026-01-11	Evening	046	046	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 8 of 10] from 002: Book followed-by: 002 -> 406
2026-01-01	Evening	468	468	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 4 of 10] from 523: Book followed-by: 523 -> 864 · followed number 418 2/4x within 10 draws
2025-12-30	Evening	523	235	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 2 of 10] from 287: Book followed-by: 287 -> 523 · followed family 359 1/12x within 10 draws
2025-12-06	Midday	701	017	distinct	+$37.50	[Hold Draw 9 of 10] from 511: Book followed-by: 511 -> 701