Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 2,058 total plays 2.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.70 (2.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/13/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 346 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (128 skips)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 242) |
| 039 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (511 skips, z=+-1.65), ⚡ Mirror Echo (455)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 242) |
| 139 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Master Quad (6-1-9-3), Shield Safe, Overdue (272 skips, z=+-0.79)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 242) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 339 | -77.4% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 5 | 1 | 20.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.33% | 0.29% | -0.04% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $113.25 | +$290.25 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$112.50 | -$38.25 | +$74.25 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -30.0% | -33.8% | -3.8% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)
Evaluated across 731 drawings (2025-09-12 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-235 (-12.5% ROI across 2,514 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$12
-100.0% ROI |
+$45
42.9% ROI |
-$54
-22.4% ROI |
-$177
-34.4% ROI |
-$387
-36.4% ROI |
-$336
-20.9% ROI |
-$235.5
-12.5% ROI |
2 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $412.5 | $525 | +$112.5 | 9 | 27.3% |
| 2024 | $549 | $487.5 | -$61.5 | 12 | -11.2% |
| 2025 | $547.5 | $337.5 | -$210 | 6 | -38.4% |
| 2026 | $376.5 | $300 | -$76.5 | 6 | -20.3% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
7 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 7)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Midday | 591 | 159 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 6, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (118 skips)) · Hold Draw 7 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 330) |
| 2026-08-23 | Evening | 330 | 033 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 6, Cici Master Quad (0-5-3-7), Shield Safe, Overdue (797 skips, z=+1.75)) · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 096) |
| 2026-08-06 | Evening | 134 | 134 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (141 skips)) · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 737) |
| 2026-06-06 | Evening | 580 | 058 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (196 skips, z=+-5.25)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 050) |
| 2026-03-03 | Evening | 080 | 008 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Master Quad (5-0-8-2), Shield Safe, Overdue (624 skips, z=+-0.15)) · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 036) |
| 2026-01-25 | Evening | 672 | 267 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 6, Date Anchor 6, Shield Safe, Overdue (202 skips, z=+-1.51), ⚡ Echo Pair (427)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 427) |
| 2025-10-07 | Midday | 280 | 028 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 1, Cici Pair + Date Root, Shield Safe, Overdue (271 skips, z=+-1.92)) · Hold Draw 1 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 913) |