Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 1)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 16 total plays 0.3 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 0.3 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.07 (0.3 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/13/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 346 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 4, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (128 skips)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 242) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 500 | 350 | -30.0% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 2 | 1 | 50.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.40% | 0.29% | -0.11% |
| Capital Invested | $125.00 | $116.50 | +$37.50 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$12.50 | -$41.50 | -$29.00 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -10.0% | -35.6% | -25.6% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (1 month walk-forward)
Evaluated across 61 drawings (2026-08-13 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-103 (-16.5% ROI across 2,514 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$4
-100.0% ROI |
-$35
-100.0% ROI |
-$5.5
-6.8% ROI |
-$59
-34.4% ROI |
-$166.5
-47.0% ROI |
-$199.5
-37.2% ROI |
-$103.5
-16.5% ROI |
2 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $137.5 | $187.5 | +$50 | 4 | 36.4% |
| 2024 | $183 | $187.5 | +$4.5 | 4 | 2.5% |
| 2025 | $182.5 | $75 | -$107.5 | 2 | -58.9% |
| 2026 | $125.5 | $75 | -$50.5 | 1 | -40.2% |