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Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 14,620 total plays 10.0 families/draw

Switch Strategy:

Ranks every family by how far past its expected gap it currently is (current skip ÷ expected skip) and plays the 10 most overdue.

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m

Draw Time: All Draws ☀️ Midday 🌆 Evening

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Law-of-large-numbers mean-reversion model. Dynamically calculates every family's current skip divided by its theoretical probability-based expected gap (10^d ÷ ways to win). Families with the highest skip-to-expectation ratio are played.

Execution & Cost Profile

Play Sizing: Averages 10.0 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.50 (10.0 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/05/2026

Playing 10 families for $2.50 total stake.

078 distinct 688 double 127 distinct 011 double 013 distinct 178 distinct 448 double 148 distinct 577 double 146 distinct

Family	Type	Selection Reason
078	distinct	1205 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (7.23x overdue)
688	double	1912 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.74x overdue)
127	distinct	917 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.50x overdue)
011	double	1769 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.31x overdue)
013	distinct	707 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.24x overdue)
178	distinct	703 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.22x overdue)
448	double	1390 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.17x overdue)
148	distinct	669 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.01x overdue)
577	double	1333 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.00x overdue)
146	distinct	648 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.89x overdue)

📊 Key performance metrics (2 years walk-forward)

Multi-Year Consistency Window

Evaluated across 1,462 drawings (2024-09-02 → 2026-09-02). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-442 (-7.1% ROI across 2,502 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$580

Return on Investment -15.9%

Hit Rate 0.45%

Max Drawdown -$-875

Active Drawings 1,462

Total Plays Placed 14,620

Total Winning Hits 66

Gross Revenue $3,075

💰 Audited Prize Payouts & Hits by Pattern Kind Dynamic Accounting: Doubles pay 2× ($75.00) · Triples pay 6× ($225.00)

double 2x Double ($75.00)

16 hits

+$1,200

distinct Base ($37.50)

50 hits

+$1,875

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Stake per family per drawing:

Starting Bankroll ($):

Total Staked (Cost) $3,655

Total Payout (Gross) $3,075

Net Profit / Loss -$580

Final Bankroll $-80

Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-875.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-1312.

🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M	3M	6M	1Y ★	2Y	3Y	All Time	Profitable Months
-$10 -100.0% ROI	-$57.5 -18.0% ROI	-$175 -22.6% ROI	-$635 -37.7% ROI	-$735 -20.9% ROI	-$352.5 -6.6% ROI	-$442.5 -7.1% ROI	2 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

Year	Cost	Gross	Net Profit	Hits	ROI
2023	$1,375	$1,387.5	+$12.5	33	0.9%
2024	$1,830	$2,025	+$195	41	10.7%
2025	$1,825	$1,500	-$325	32	-17.8%
2026	$1,225	$900	-$325	18	-26.5%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

24-09 $155

24-10 $70

24-11 $-75

24-12 $-80

25-01 $-5

25-02 $10

25-03 $220

25-04 $-113

25-05 $-80

25-06 $-75

25-07 $-5

25-08 $33

25-09 $0

25-10 $-80

25-11 $-75

25-12 $-155

26-01 $-118

26-02 $85

26-03 $-118

26-04 $-38

26-05 $-43

26-06 $-38

26-07 $33

26-08 $-80

26-09 $-10

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

056 2 hits 057 2 hits 069 2 hits 235 2 hits 359 2 hits 012 1 hits 013 1 hits 015 1 hits 018 1 hits 019 1 hits 026 1 hits 027 1 hits 029 1 hits 034 1 hits 037 1 hits 038 1 hits 039 1 hits 044 1 hits 045 1 hits 046 1 hits 048 1 hits 058 1 hits 067 1 hits 099 1 hits 115 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 25)

Date	Draw	Number	Family	Pattern Type	Payout	Trigger Reason
2026-08-28	Evening	143	134	distinct	+$37.50	672 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.03x overdue)
2026-08-07	Midday	046	046	distinct	+$37.50	806 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.84x overdue)
2026-07-28	Evening	909	099	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1268 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.80x overdue)
2026-07-21	Evening	539	359	distinct	+$37.50	880 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (5.28x overdue)
2026-07-10	Midday	092	029	distinct	+$37.50	770 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.62x overdue)
2026-07-09	Midday	625	256	distinct	+$37.50	691 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.15x overdue)
2026-06-23	Midday	065	056	distinct	+$37.50	709 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.25x overdue)
2026-06-20	Evening	263	236	distinct	+$37.50	643 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.86x overdue)
2026-06-10	Evening	120	012	distinct	+$37.50	1047 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (6.28x overdue)
2026-05-13	Midday	720	027	distinct	+$37.50	607 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.64x overdue)
2026-05-04	Evening	115	115	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1680 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.04x overdue)
2026-04-23	Midday	993	399	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1850 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.55x overdue)
2026-04-11	Midday	378	378	distinct	+$37.50	618 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.71x overdue)
2026-03-18	Midday	083	038	distinct	+$37.50	613 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.68x overdue)
2026-02-27	Midday	474	447	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1188 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.56x overdue)
2026-02-24	Midday	044	044	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1410 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.23x overdue)
2026-02-19	Midday	771	177	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1285 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.86x overdue)
2026-01-30	Evening	325	235	distinct	+$37.50	598 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.59x overdue)
2025-11-07	Midday	706	067	distinct	+$37.50	554 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.32x overdue)
2025-11-02	Midday	075	057	distinct	+$37.50	558 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.35x overdue)
2025-10-13	Midday	069	069	distinct	+$37.50	707 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.24x overdue)
2025-10-04	Midday	645	456	distinct	+$37.50	642 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.85x overdue)
2025-09-22	Midday	545	455	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1274 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.82x overdue)
2025-09-18	Midday	109	019	distinct	+$37.50	692 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.15x overdue)
2025-09-09	Midday	615	156	distinct	+$37.50	514 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.08x overdue)