Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 3 Portfolio)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 417 total plays 2.3 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays top 3 multi-factor candidates with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 2.3 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.57 (2.3 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/09/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 799 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Master Quad (2-7-5-9), Shield Safe, Overdue (741 skips, z=+1.48), ⚡ Mirror Echo (343)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 363) |
| 234 | distinct | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 9, Date Anchor 2, Shield Safe, Overdue (276 skips, z=+-2.54), ⚡ Echo Pair (343)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 363) |
| 588 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 3, Date Root 3, Shield Safe, Overdue (640 skips, z=+0.91), ⚡ Mirror Echo (343)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 363) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: Severe Inefficiency: High ticket burn with weak conversion. Recommend switching to Top-1 chase or post-double regime.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 1,500 | 270 | -82.0% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 4 | 1 | 25.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.27% | 0.37% | +0.10% |
| Capital Invested | $375.00 | $90.00 | +$307.50 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | -$187.50 | -$52.50 | +$135.00 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | -50.0% | -58.3% | -8.3% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (3 months walk-forward)
Evaluated across 183 drawings (2026-06-09 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-380 (-20.2% ROI across 2,507 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$11.25
-100.0% ROI |
-$104.25
-100.0% ROI |
-$128.25
-53.3% ROI |
-$174.75
-34.1% ROI |
-$270.75
-25.6% ROI |
-$368.25
-22.9% ROI |
-$380.25
-20.2% ROI |
3 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $411 | $375 | -$36 | 8 | -8.8% |
| 2024 | $547.5 | $562.5 | +$15 | 10 | 2.7% |
| 2025 | $546 | $375 | -$171 | 8 | -31.3% |
| 2026 | $375.75 | $187.5 | -$188.25 | 4 | -50.1% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
1 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 1)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 | Midday | 645 | 456 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 6, Date Anchor 5, Shield Safe, Overdue (264 skips, z=+-1.67), ⚡ Echo Pair (594)) · Hold Draw 4 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 594) |