Dashboard · Performance · Strategy Scouting Report
Pickstics Adaptive Confluence (10-Draw Hold - Top 1)
Dynamic Walk-Forward 139 total plays 0.8 families/draw
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
🧠 How this strategy works
Methodology & Selection Logic
Dynamic 5-factor walk-forward ridge confluence: plays the #1 multi-factor candidate with >= 3 factor alignment, gated by Cooldown Gate with 10-Draw Cut-Off.
Execution & Cost Profile
- Play Sizing: Averages 0.8 boxed families per drawing.
- Cost per Active Draw: ~$0.19 (0.8 × $0.25).
- Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
- Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.
🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/09/2026
Active numbers in this hold cycle:
| Family | Type | Current Status | Selection Reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| 799 | double | Hold Draw 10 of 10 | Adaptive Confluence (6/5 votes, ★★★★★★, 2.75x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Master Quad (2-7-5-9), Shield Safe, Overdue (741 skips, z=+1.48), ⚡ Mirror Echo (343)) · Hold Draw 10 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 363) |
Quantitative Diagnostic: High Efficiency: Strong ROI lift with significant ticket cost reduction.
| Dimension / Metric | Standard Baseline | ⚡ High-Efficiency Optimized | Variance & Capital Lift |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Plays Placed | 500 | 185 | -63.0% wagers eliminated |
| Winning Hits Captured | 4 | 1 | 25.0% hits retained |
| Hit Rate Efficiency | 0.80% | 0.54% | -0.26% |
| Capital Invested | $125.00 | $62.00 | +$78.75 saved |
| Net Profit / Loss | +$100.00 | +$13.00 | -$87.00 turnaround |
| Return on Investment (ROI) | 80.0% | 21.0% | -59.0% ROI Lift |
📊 Key performance metrics (3 months walk-forward)
Evaluated across 183 drawings (2026-06-09 → 2026-09-08). Multi-year consistency benchmark: +$348 (55.6% ROI across 2,507 all-time draws).
💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator
Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.
⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency
How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.
| 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y ★ | 2Y | 3Y | All Time | Profitable Months |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-$3.75
-100.0% ROI |
+$115.25
331.7% ROI |
+$144.75
180.4% ROI |
+$129.25
75.7% ROI |
+$209.75
59.5% ROI |
+$214.75
40.1% ROI |
+$348.25
55.6% ROI |
5 / 12 |
📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown
Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.
| Year | Cost | Gross | Net Profit | Hits | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | $137 | $262.5 | +$125.5 | 6 | 91.6% |
| 2024 | $182.5 | $187.5 | +$5 | 4 | 2.7% |
| 2025 | $182 | $262.5 | +$80.5 | 5 | 44.2% |
| 2026 | $125.25 | $262.5 | +$137.25 | 5 | 109.6% |
📈 Monthly profit & loss history
🎯 Historical Drop Distribution (Which draw do drops land on?)
3 Documented Drops in BacktestDistribution of winning drops across the 10-draw hold window. Shorter holds lock in higher net profit by minimizing wager accumulation.
💡 How to Read This Chart: In stop-on-drop holding, every draw a number takes to drop costs an additional $0.25 per family. Drops landing on Draws 1 through 3 yield maximum profit margin ($35.00+ net on a $37.50 distinct payout). If a candidate reaches the Draw 10 Cut-Off without dropping, the hold expires to prevent runaway drawdown.
🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy
Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.
🎯 Recent winning hits (last 3)
| Date | Draw | Number | Family | Pattern Type | Payout | Trigger Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Midday | 232 | 223 | double 2x Double | +$75.00 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 7, Cici Pair, Shield Safe, Overdue (487 skips, z=+1.16)) · Hold Draw 9 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 690) |
| 2026-07-29 | Evening | 197 | 179 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 8, Cici Master Quad (4-9-7-1), Shield Safe, LLN Deficit (z=+1.99)) · Hold Draw 6 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 797) |
| 2026-07-16 | Evening | 793 | 379 | distinct | +$37.50 | Adaptive Confluence (5/5 votes, ★★★★★, 2.4x boost · Follower, Root 1, Date Anchor 3, Shield Safe, Overdue (117 skips)) · Hold Draw 2 of 10 (Stop-on-Drop for trigger 201) |