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Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation)

Dynamic Walk-Forward 7,320 total plays 10.0 families/draw

Switch Strategy:

Ranks every family by how far past its expected gap it currently is (current skip ÷ expected skip) and plays the 10 most overdue.

Time Window: 6 months ★ 1 year (Sweet Spot) 2 years 3 years 5 years All time (Full History) · 1m 3m

Draw Time: All Draws ☀️ Midday 🌆 Evening

🧠 How this strategy works

Methodology & Selection Logic

Law-of-large-numbers mean-reversion model. Dynamically calculates every family's current skip divided by its theoretical probability-based expected gap (10^d ÷ ways to win). Families with the highest skip-to-expectation ratio are played.

Execution & Cost Profile

Play Sizing: Averages 10.0 boxed families per drawing.
Cost per Active Draw: ~$2.50 (10.0 × $0.25).
Settlement: Every play is settled against actual historical drawings without lookahead bias.
Trigger Behavior: Re-evaluated before every drawing based strictly on past occurrences.

🎯 Next draw plays — Midday · 09/05/2026

Playing 10 families for $2.50 total stake.

588 double 248 distinct 225 double 345 distinct 258 distinct 378 distinct 156 distinct 023 distinct 244 double 689 distinct

Family	Type	Selection Reason
588	double	1818 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (5.45x overdue)
248	distinct	769 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.61x overdue)
225	double	1327 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.98x overdue)
345	distinct	651 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.91x overdue)
258	distinct	637 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.82x overdue)
378	distinct	480 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.88x overdue)
156	distinct	463 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.78x overdue)
023	distinct	455 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.73x overdue)
244	double	856 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (2.57x overdue)
689	distinct	423 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.54x overdue)

📊 Key performance metrics (1 year walk-forward)

★ Sweet Spot Window

Evaluated across 732 drawings (2025-09-04 → 2026-09-04). Multi-year consistency benchmark: $-790 (-12.6% ROI across 2,506 all-time draws).

Net Profit -$67.5

Return on Investment -3.7%

Hit Rate 0.48%

Max Drawdown -$-300

Active Drawings 732

Total Plays Placed 7,320

Total Winning Hits 35

Gross Revenue $1,762.5

💰 Audited Prize Payouts & Hits by Pattern Kind Dynamic Accounting: Doubles pay 2× ($75.00) · Triples pay 6× ($225.00)

distinct Base ($37.50)

23 hits

+$862.5

double 2x Double ($75.00)

12 hits

+$900

💼 Bankroll & Staking Simulator

Test how this strategy would have performed with different stake sizes and starting bankrolls, based on the actual historical walk-forward results.

Stake per family per drawing:

Starting Bankroll ($):

Total Staked (Cost) $1,830

Total Payout (Gross) $1,762.5

Net Profit / Loss -$67.5

Final Bankroll $432.5

Max historical drawdown scaled to selected stake: -$-300.00. Recommended minimum bankroll to withstand historical drawdowns: $-450.

🛡️ 1% Bankroll Rule Check: Professional risk sizing says no single draw should ever risk >1% of your bankroll.

⏱ Trailing window performance & consistency

How this strategy performed across each standard lookback window, plus profitable months out of the trailing 12. Compare short-term sweet spots against multi-year consistency.

1M	3M	6M	1Y ★	2Y	3Y	All Time	Profitable Months
+$92.5 462.5% ROI	+$232.5 70.5% ROI	+$152.5 19.4% ROI	+$30 1.8% ROI	-$220 -6.3% ROI	-$325 -6.1% ROI	-$790 -12.6% ROI	6 / 12

📅 Year-by-year consistency breakdown

Annual profit & loss consistency across every calendar year in the archive.

Year	Cost	Gross	Net Profit	Hits	ROI
2023	$1,375	$1,012.5	-$362.5	24	-26.4%
2024	$1,830	$1,837.5	+$7.5	35	0.4%
2025	$1,825	$1,237.5	-$587.5	30	-32.2%
2026	$1,235	$1,387.5	+$152.5	26	12.3%

📈 Monthly profit & loss history

25-09 $-98

25-10 $-80

25-11 $-75

25-12 $33

26-01 $33

26-02 $-103

26-03 $70

26-04 $0

26-05 $-43

26-06 $-38

26-07 $108

26-08 $33

26-09 $93

🏆 Most-hit families in this strategy

Families that generated the highest number of winning hits when played by this strategy.

019 1 hits 025 1 hits 028 1 hits 029 1 hits 035 1 hits 045 1 hits 066 1 hits 069 1 hits 078 1 hits 113 1 hits 114 1 hits 118 1 hits 127 1 hits 136 1 hits 137 1 hits 139 1 hits 146 1 hits 166 1 hits 246 1 hits 255 1 hits 267 1 hits 359 1 hits 367 1 hits 368 1 hits 447 1 hits

🎯 Recent winning hits (last 25)

Date	Draw	Number	Family	Pattern Type	Payout	Trigger Reason
2026-09-03	Evening	317	137	distinct	+$37.50	628 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.77x overdue)
2026-09-01	Evening	811	118	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1008 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.02x overdue)
2026-08-31	Evening	960	069	distinct	+$37.50	447 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.68x overdue)
2026-08-18	Evening	209	029	distinct	+$37.50	593 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.56x overdue)
2026-08-18	Midday	944	449	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1301 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.90x overdue)
2026-08-15	Evening	546	456	distinct	+$37.50	441 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (2.65x overdue)
2026-07-30	Midday	868	688	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1023 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.07x overdue)
2026-07-25	Evening	744	447	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1072 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.22x overdue)
2026-07-20	Evening	686	668	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1663 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.99x overdue)
2026-07-10	Midday	721	127	distinct	+$37.50	690 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.14x overdue)
2026-06-30	Midday	164	146	distinct	+$37.50	668 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.01x overdue)
2026-06-26	Midday	540	045	distinct	+$37.50	574 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.44x overdue)
2026-06-10	Evening	530	035	distinct	+$37.50	659 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.95x overdue)
2026-05-27	Midday	193	139	distinct	+$37.50	707 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (4.24x overdue)
2026-05-25	Midday	411	114	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1350 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.05x overdue)
2026-04-28	Evening	574	457	distinct	+$37.50	513 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.08x overdue)
2026-04-24	Evening	131	113	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1095 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (3.29x overdue)
2026-04-13	Midday	376	367	distinct	+$37.50	578 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.47x overdue)
2026-03-15	Evening	788	788	double 2x Double	+$75.00	953 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (2.86x overdue)
2026-03-11	Evening	616	166	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1460 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.38x overdue)
2026-03-10	Midday	525	255	double 2x Double	+$75.00	2169 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (6.51x overdue)
2026-02-04	Evening	250	025	distinct	+$37.50	641 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.85x overdue)
2026-01-28	Evening	820	028	distinct	+$37.50	626 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.76x overdue)
2026-01-16	Evening	964	469	distinct	+$37.50	561 draws since last hit — expected ~167 (3.37x overdue)
2026-01-15	Midday	660	066	double 2x Double	+$75.00	1459 draws since last hit — expected ~333 (4.38x overdue)