Walk-forward strategy performance
Every strategy was re-run draw by draw across the 2,506 archive drawings (2023-04-01 → 2026-09-04) using only prior data — no lookahead. Multi-Year All-Time Baseline Payout table at $0.25 per family per drawing: distinct $93.75 / double $187.50 / two-double $375.00 / triple $562.50 / quadruple $2250.00 / .
What "plays" means. One play = one $0.25 bet on one boxed family for one drawing.
Total plays = families played per drawing × drawings — e.g. a strategy that plays
1 families every drawing across
2,506 drawings accumulates
1,385 plays.
Every single play is settled against an actual archived drawing, and every hit is listed with its date in each
strategy's detail below — nothing here is estimated or modeled.
⚡ Quick Sort:
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| Strategy | Families/draw | Drawings | Total plays | Hits | Hit rate | Cost | Gross | Net | ROI | Max drawdown |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pickstics Empirical Follower (10-Draw Chase - Top 1) | 1.0 | 1,385 | 1,385 | 3 | 0.22% | $346.25 | $281.25 | $-65 | -18.8% | $-170.5 |
| Pickstics Empirical Follower (10-Draw Chase - Top 5 Portfolio) | 1.0 | 1,385 | 1,385 | 3 | 0.22% | $346.25 | $281.25 | $-65 | -18.8% | $-170.5 |
| Cici's Rules Engine (10-Draw Chase · All Candidates) | 8.0 | 2,506 | 20,048 | 28 | 0.14% | $5,012 | $4,593.75 | $-418.25 | -8.3% | $-904.5 |
| Cici's Rules Engine (10-Draw Chase · Top 1) | 1.0 | 2,506 | 2,506 | 5 | 0.20% | $626.5 | $656.25 | $29.75 | 4.8% | $-223.5 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity · Rapid 3-Draw Pipeline | 1.3 | 2,416 | 3,127 | 7 | 0.22% | $781.75 | $656.25 | $-125.5 | -16.1% | $-186.75 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity · Rolling 10-Draw Pipeline | 1.6 | 2,416 | 3,853 | 9 | 0.23% | $963.25 | $843.75 | $-119.5 | -12.4% | $-313.75 |
| Pickstics Empirical Follower · Rolling 10-Draw Pipeline | 1.9 | 1,713 | 3,208 | 5 | 0.16% | $802 | $562.5 | $-239.5 | -29.9% | $-327.5 |
| Cici's Rules Engine | 8.0 | 2,506 | 20,048 | 29 | 0.14% | $5,012 | $4,687.5 | $-324.5 | -6.5% | $-766.5 |
| Followed-By (empirical top 5) | 1.0 | 329 | 329 | 1 | 0.30% | $82.25 | $93.75 | $11.5 | 14.0% | $-59 |
| Hot Families (top 10) | 10.0 | 2,506 | 25,060 | 60 | 0.24% | $6,265 | $5,812.5 | $-452.5 | -7.2% | $-881.25 |
| Cold/Due Families (bottom 10) | 10.0 | 2,506 | 25,060 | 9 | 0.04% | $6,265 | $5,437.5 | $-827.5 | -13.2% | $-3,332.5 |
| Hot doubles (top 18) | 18.0 | 2,506 | 45,108 | 52 | 0.12% | $11,277 | $9,750 | $-1,527 | -13.5% | $-2,421 |
| Pure Matches: Quads (All 10) | 10.0 | 2,506 | 25,060 | 2 | 0.01% | $6,265 | $4,500 | $-1,765 | -28.2% | $-4,410 |
| Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation) | 10.0 | 2,506 | 25,060 | 63 | 0.25% | $6,265 | $6,562.5 | $297.5 | 4.8% | $-948.75 |
| Carryover Overdue (top 10) | 10.0 | 2,506 | 25,060 | 59 | 0.24% | $6,265 | $6,187.5 | $-77.5 | -1.2% | $-1,278.75 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity Momentum (top 10) | 10.0 | 2,416 | 24,160 | 47 | 0.19% | $6,040 | $4,406.25 | $-1,633.75 | -27.1% | $-1,743.75 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) | 18.0 | 2,506 | 45,108 | 53 | 0.12% | $11,277 | $11,718.75 | $441.75 | 3.9% | $-3,378 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 2y window) | 18.0 | 2,506 | 45,108 | 40 | 0.09% | $11,277 | $9,187.5 | $-2,089.5 | -18.5% | $-4,069.5 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 90d window) | 10.0 | 2,506 | 25,060 | 14 | 0.06% | $6,265 | $5,437.5 | $-827.5 | -13.2% | $-2,545 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) | 10.0 | 2,506 | 25,060 | 25 | 0.10% | $6,265 | $7,218.75 | $953.75 | 15.2% | $-1,947.5 |
| Calendar Year Top-5 | 5.0 | 2,506 | 12,530 | 38 | 0.30% | $3,132.5 | $3,562.5 | $430 | 13.7% | $-265 |
| Baseline: All 252 Distinct Boxes | 210.0 | 2,506 | 526,260 | 1,272 | 0.24% | $131,565 | $119,250 | $-12,315 | -9.4% | $-12,390 |
| Consensus Panel | 9.7 | 2,506 | 24,362 | 58 | 0.24% | $6,090.5 | $6,000 | $-90.5 | -1.5% | $-1,254.75 |
Window summary.
6 of 23 strategies finished positive in this window.
· Highest Capital ROI: Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) (+15.2% ROI, net +$953.75)
Top Net Dollars: Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) +$953.75 · Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) +$441.75 · Calendar Year Top-5 +$430.00
Top Net Dollars: Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) +$953.75 · Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) +$441.75 · Calendar Year Top-5 +$430.00
Performance matrix — net by trailing window (all strategies)
Each cell is a strategy's net over the trailing calendar window, from the full-archive run — green means the strategy made money in that window, red means it lost. The last column counts how many of the last 12 active months were profitable.
| Strategy | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 2Y | 3Y | All time | Positive months (12) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 180d window) | +$355 | +$608 | +$715 | +$368 | +$1,824 | +$181 | +$954 | 8/12 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 1y window) | +$339 | +$906 | +$2,150 | +$2,480 | +$2,008 | -$349 | +$442 | 9/12 |
| Calendar Year Top-5 | -$10 | +$116 | +$76 | +$278 | +$490 | +$419 | +$430 | 7/12 |
| Overdue 10 (gap vs expectation) | -$20 | +$45 | -$410 | -$383 | -$520 | +$369 | +$298 | 5/12 |
| Cici's Rules Engine (10-Draw Chase · Top 1) | -$2 | -$33 | -$79 | +$18 | +$211 | +$121 | +$30 | 1/12 |
| Followed-By (empirical top 5) | -$1 | -$8 | -$20 | -$36 | +$32 | +$16 | +$12 | 0/12 |
| Pickstics Empirical Follower (10-Draw Chase - Top 1) | -$2 | -$28 | -$63 | -$23 | +$55 | -$35 | -$65 | 1/12 |
| Pickstics Empirical Follower (10-Draw Chase - Top 5 Portfolio) | -$2 | -$28 | -$63 | -$23 | +$55 | -$35 | -$65 | 1/12 |
| Carryover Overdue (top 10) | -$20 | -$143 | -$598 | -$851 | -$708 | +$88 | -$78 | 2/12 |
| Consensus Panel | -$18 | +$58 | -$404 | -$607 | -$753 | +$234 | -$91 | 2/12 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity · Rolling 10-Draw Pipeline | -$3 | +$130 | +$155 | +$96 | -$4 | -$93 | -$120 | 3/12 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity · Rapid 3-Draw Pipeline | -$3 | -$45 | -$6 | -$33 | -$83 | -$119 | -$126 | 2/12 |
| Pickstics Empirical Follower · Rolling 10-Draw Pipeline | -$6 | -$75 | -$188 | -$260 | -$44 | -$201 | -$240 | 1/12 |
| Cici's Rules Engine | -$16 | -$77 | -$441 | -$419 | -$191 | -$436 | -$325 | 4/12 |
| Cici's Rules Engine (10-Draw Chase · All Candidates) | -$16 | +$486 | +$122 | -$419 | -$191 | +$33 | -$418 | 3/12 |
| Hot Families (top 10) | -$20 | +$45 | +$59 | +$274 | -$239 | -$288 | -$453 | 7/12 |
| Cold/Due Families (bottom 10) | +$543 | +$233 | +$2,028 | +$2,055 | +$230 | -$850 | -$828 | 4/12 |
| Profit Leaders (top 10, 90d window) | -$20 | +$233 | -$223 | -$1,133 | -$895 | -$2,163 | -$828 | 2/12 |
| Hot doubles (top 18) | -$36 | +$156 | +$462 | +$887 | +$789 | -$630 | -$1,527 | 8/12 |
| Carryover Mixed-Parity Momentum (top 10) | -$20 | +$45 | -$129 | -$195 | -$801 | -$1,413 | -$1,634 | 3/12 |
| Pure Matches: Quads (All 10) | -$20 | -$330 | +$1,465 | +$555 | -$1,270 | -$850 | -$1,765 | 1/12 |
| Profit Persisters (top 18, 2y window) | +$339 | +$156 | +$650 | +$230 | -$524 | -$2,880 | -$2,090 | 5/12 |
| Baseline: All 252 Distinct Boxes | -$45 | -$86 | -$1,110 | -$3,814 | -$8,858 | -$10,725 | -$12,315 | 2/12 |